Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, June 25th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, again testing a key threshold of 2.00%. The major stock indexes are showing relatively sizable losses with the Dow down 98 points and the Nasdaq down 31 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (1.99%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly.

9/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.98%

98


Dow


26,629

31


NASDAQ


7,974

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Positive


New Home Sales

This morning had two economic releases, both at 10:00 AM ET. May's New Home Sales report showed that sales of newly constructed homes declined 7.8% last month when analysts were expecting to see a decline. The good news is that this hints at housing sector weakness that makes broader economic growth more difficult. However, this report tracks such a small portion of all home sales that the data doesn’t carry much significance and has had little impact on today’s mortgage pricing.

Medium


Positive


Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was the second release of the morning. It came in at 121.5, well below forecasts of 132.0 and May’s revised 131.3. This was the lowest reading since September 2017, indicating that consumers are much less confident about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending that is such a big portion of our economy.

High


Unknown


Fed Talk

Fed Chairman Powell will speak at 1:00 PM ET today in a conversation with a New York Times writer about the hurdles the economy is facing. Anytime the Fed Chair speaks, their words are watched closely. The topic is directly related to economic growth, so the likelihood of the markets reacting is elevated.

High


Unknown


Durable Goods Orders

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of May's Durable Goods Orders, which the Commerce Department will post at 8:30 AM ET. This data will give us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. It is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expected to show a decline of 0.3% in new orders from April to May. A large decline would be the ideal scenario for the bond market and would hopefully lead to an improvement in mortgage pricing as it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness.

Medium


Unknown


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,30 year securities)

Also tomorrow is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. These sales have the potential to influence broader bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates if they show strong or weak investor demand. If it is met with a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to an afternoon improvement to mortgage rates tomorrow. On the other hand, if the sale draws a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage rates may move slightly higher.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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